Saturday 9 May 2020

EXPLORING THE ECONOMY AFTER THE NEW PANDEMIC

The pestilence of the novel Corona (Covid-19) virus has created unprecedented and strange complications before the world by stalling everything. It is the most complicated and perplexing attack on human existence in the human history. The world will not remain the same after control of this epidemic; what will be the nature of it, next?—This natural question is inherent in many minds and brains. This epidemic is having some positive benefits also. Pollution has decreased considerably, nature has had an unprecedented chance to be recuperate. Governments and societies are forced to learn and implement many things very speedily. But, because of this, there have been complications before the world, including India, which are going to have far-reaching implications. On the one hand, the neglect and difficulties of the laboring masses have increased, on the other hand, the danger of domination of capitalism and orthodoxy has increased.
Economists of the world had expressed fears of recession since the last months of 2019. The corona crisis is adding salt to the sore. Now, the IMF is also saying that this slowdown is going to be more intense than the Great Depression of 1930. It is reeling both developed and developing nations under its grip. CMIE reported on April 7th that total unemployment in India has gone up to 23.4 per cent while urban unemployment is 30.9 per cent.
Based on the study of the business cycles of Shri Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar and American Professor of Indian Origin, Ravi Batra, it can be said that starting from 2019-20, this great depression will run for six years (in all social, economic, mental spheres) and then from 2029-30 to 2036, there will be a period of inflation and great war. (The Downfall of Capitalism and Communism, 1978 and The Great Depression of 1990, 1987)  The higher the intensity of these fluctuations, the greater the distress and ruination of the people. It’s detailed understanding will require separate elaboration. These fluctuations can be lightened and their implications can be greatly reduced, with a real combination of egalitarian tendencies with a democratic, universal, science and strategic world government, as the PROUT ideology proposes. The global system that has been going on so far is becoming irrelevant. The WHO, the IMF, the World Bank and even the UN, have proved to be very weak in this ongoing capitalist order. 'PROUT' is Progressive Utilization Theory, a universal vision that differs from the extremes of capitalism and communism and as a coordinated ideology of local mass development.   
All are familiar with the recent distress of daily wage labourers particularly in India, such as those who had to flee, due to the immediate crisis and possible apprehension of deprivation of livelihood and basic amenities from metros like Delhi, Mumbai, etc. In this exodus, the central government's action plan, the working of the Delhi government and the inability and non-cooperation of the owners of factories and institutions — all are under question for their role, which created a major crisis of confidence among these daily wage labourers. Despite ban on large gatherings since March 16, the collection of more than 2000 Jamatis in the Markaz Nizamuddin adjoining the police station's wall till March 28 made the intelligence, actions and notice game of the governments and police questionable.  Then what about the gathering at Nanded upto third week of April and further scene!
The migrant labourers of Surat, Mumbai and some other places have been disturbed by the misery and sometimes forced for rebellion. Now, these workers will have to think a lot before they return to work. It is a big challenge to restart these factories and institutions in the absence of labourers. Although the owners are using employment agents to recall these workers, these agents were missing at the time of the exodus of these workers, were they available to help or handle then! It is believed that 40 crore daily wage labourers are going to fall into extreme poverty due to unemployment.
Now, the governments of Bihar, UP, Chhattisgarh, etc., are compelled to avail employment opportunities in their own state. But this is a long-term strategic process. The PROUT ideology has been proposing that every sector should have more and more enterprises in accordance with local resources which should be run by coordinated cooperatives. Coordinated cooperative societies are truly far more people-oriented than the prevailing cooperatives. Workers and other participants should be given ownership as shareholder beneficiaries in these societies. This will reduce the migration of workers, increase employment opportunities and create balance and prosperity in regional development. The burden of metropolitan areas and social distortions will also decrease.
As per PROUT, all medium sized producers, farmworkers, labourers, consumer supplies and business units and agriculture supporting (agrico) and agro-industries will be run by coordinated cooperatives. So far, cooperatives have been running under the control of government departments in which ruling politicians and bureaucrats maintain their direct or indirect possession, whereas the common members are unheard of. The result is inefficiency, scams and losses. Such subordinate cooperative societies have been unsuccessful. Governments in cooperatives should be confined only to the indirect positive and promotional role of 'friend, philosopher and guide'. The workers will also get dividend as shareholder in addition to salary/wages/remuneration from the cooperative society, in addition to interest and rent in proportion to capital/land. The option of coordinated cooperative farming instead of contract or corporate farming is at least appropriate for small holdings.
Public undertakings have played very good role in this pandemic all over the world. All major enterprises should be run in public control as far as possible. Keep small business privately owned.
The employment policy is that the use of resources and the level of economic activities will have to be raised enough through proper decentralized planning to ensure 100% employment in every sector. In any sector, for a balanced economy, 30-40% of total employment is required in agriculture, 20% in agro-based enterprises, 20% in agricultural support enterprises, 10-20% in non-agricultural industries, 10% in trade-commerce and 10% in white-collar activities.
In the case of pricing of agricultural produce, it is advisable to look at it as an industry. Minimum price should be guaranteed with reasonable profit and risk premium on cost. The income gap between agriculture and non-agricultural sectors needs to be reduced. There is a need to diversify yields by providing agro-based industries at the local level.
All must have a proper guarantee of five minimum needs—food, clothing, housing, education and medicare—through direct benefit transfer, minimum income and effective guarantee of employment. A policy of centralized polity and decentralized socio-economic system will have to be adopted to ensure discipline and speed in the country and the world as well.  These are the highlights of the economic policy of PROUT.
PROUT is a socio-economic philosophy, but it is also linked to the scientific and rational aspects of spirituality, yoga and tantra as the 'model of Rajadhiraja Yoga' and also neo-humanism. The Ishwar-Pranidhan (meditation), madhuvidya and meditation of yoga controls blood pressure and anxiety by reducing the curvature of the waves of the brain. Pranayama not only strengthens the lungs by improving the intake of oxygen but also revives the cells by their oxygenation. These three combined can significantly improve the potential of disease resistance. Good immunity is necessary to fight Kovid-19. It is useful for both the leaders and the public equally.  
 
Let us check a connected issue as to whether it is opportunity or challenge for India. China had become the global hub for production of all kinds of consumer and low technology goods for the past three decades. It is also called the manufacturing capital of the world. Recently, some countries in South East Asia, Indonesia, Malasia, Thailand, etc., also joined.  Today, the whole world, including America and Europe, is furious at China. Japan is covering up its business from China as an economic distance policy. There is a great opportunity for India to replace China as an economic hub. This opportunity was with India earlier also, but we could not take advantage of it. The positive mood of the world is giving India an opportunity, but we have to expedite the right preparations, otherwise we will miss again. Don't forget, Brazil, Mexico, Southeast Asia and Europe itself are also in competition.  India has got an opportunity, also getting a lot of appreciation, but the crown will come on its own well decorated in the plate, we should not be any victim of such illusion. It is in the air that many companies mainly from the USA are interested to shift their businesses to India, particularly the UP—auspicious signs have appeared.
Here,  we have to understand that despite being a communist country, China became the choice of capitalist countries because of its systemic stability (political, economic and social, at every level) and discipline. To bring about systemic stability and discipline in India, it is very important that the backdoor worship of capitalism; business of religious, communal and caste hatred and polarization; the cut throat competition for hateful supremacy under the politics of note and vote--all are stopped. But how? The narrow emotions of communal and caste /ethnic domination cannot be governed by a neutral policy of caste, creed or secularism. Scientific-temper, humanity-oriented human religion, scientific spirituality, global brotherhood and monotheism have to be taken within and outside the country as a unifying force by way of a comprehensive assertive policy. For this, the whole world, including India today, needs a complete cultural revolution with the inclusion of these elements.
If India succeeds in actualising the potential of the global hub of production, its vast young population will get great opportunities for employment and prosperity. This issue requires serious thinking and effort. This is a very favourable time to adopt the economic philosophy of PROUT. All these things re-outline the same thing — the world's problems, including India, are not going to be solved by the change of governments, the whole system has to be changed.

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